This Console Generation

I've been reading another blog wherein the author is attempting to characterize each of the major console manufacturers and perhaps give some insight into their strategies, with perhaps a small prediction as to the winner. I figured I'd take a stab at roughly the same thing.

* Microsoft

I believe that Microsoft is currently the generation's leader, even if they temporarily lose the hardware market share crown, they're in the catbird seat as far as revenue thanks to the incredible attach rate of the X box 360. They also have by far the strongest lineup of any next gen console, and it will be even stronger by the end of this year. The company itself is a software company modeled on attempting to provide the widest accepted solution for any given problem and to throw resources at a product just enough to beat all competitors in the area. Then resources are thrown at a product only to convince users to upgrade to the next version of the product. Examples of this include Windows and Microsoft Office.

As far as video games, I believe they're simply looking to open up another revenue stream after witnessing Sony's resounding financial success in this market, and obviously they look at the X Box line as a way to break into people's living rooms and sell them the software and media they want to consume (witness X Box live marketplace and the Zune store). That said, they have managed to cleverly buy into some great first party studios in Ensemble and Bungie as well as above average to good studios in Rare and Lionhead. They have clearly made a strong first party commitment and as a games publisher have gotten to the point where they tend to publish only top rated games (Gotham, Forza, Gears of War, Mass Effect[yeah I know I'm tooting my company's horn, but it's got Buzz damnit]). The hardware itself has proven to be a bit flaky, this is not a surprise as Microsoft is clearly a software company first, and software is where they Excel.

As a developer, developing on Microsoft's platforms have consistently been the best experience of all console development, and an incredibly straightforward and easy way to make games. They provide fantastic tools (Pix, Visual Studio, xbperfview), and great support, and they've managed to consistently design easy-to-develop-for hardware, the only gotcha being the multicore nature of the 360.

They've learned a lot from their X box 1 mistakes and the 360 is a much stronger platform for it. Custom designed into a sleek shape that's easily acceptible to all, with a very strong first party lineup, and the best third party support of any "next gen" console, they have pulled off their strategy of coming out of the gate first and establishing a strong lead.

Strong, but certainly not insurmountable.

* Sony

If Microsoft is the leader, Sony is bringing up the rear. As a company, Sony is one of the world's leading consumer electronics manufacturers and they make everything from camcorders to cell phones. With Playstation and Playstation 2, Sony found that video games were a very lucrative market, and became Sony's most profitable division by far. At this point one could speculate that Sony needs video games to survive the way they have in the past, Blu Ray could also be a potentially torrential revenue stream if it goes their way.

From a games point of view, Sony has, in previous generation managed to be the third party leader as well as having the largest group of first party developers of all the major console manufacturers. They've built strong first and second party brands and own quite a bit of the most valuable "second tier" video game IP ( Ratchet and Clank, Jak and Daxter, God of War). Nothing quite as iconic as Mario or Sonic, but valuable nonetheless. Their first party group has managed to put out quality game after quality game, and I'd argue that they have the best first party of all the major console manufacturers. At least they did during playstation 2, Sucker Punch, Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica and Fumito Ueda's team have managed to put out some of the finest games the previous console generation had to offer. (Sly Cooper, Jak and Daxter, Ico, Shadow). Their "second party" has been strong too, with Insomniac. And in previous console generations, their third party connections made their position nearly unassailable, with Square, Konami, and Rockstar all creating exclusive or timed exclusive content for the Playstation 2 console.

This generation has seen a somewhat shocking shift in strategy away from attempting to secure exclusives (even timed ones). Having had rumors of having Assassin's Creed as an exclusive (among other games), only to find out that they were cross platform, was very surprising, given that Sony is also showing somewhat weak first party support with nothing so far coming from Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica, Sucker Punch, and only a new IP from Insomniac, the well recieved if not killer app quality "Resistance: Fall of Man". Given this new direction, Sony seems to be facing a very uphill battle. They've got quite a few cards in the deck waiting for the rest of the year, but aside from Ratchet and Clank, none of their major 07 titles feature clearly superior intellectual properties, certainly not proven ones. The beginning of next year should be strong with Metal Gear Solid, and the possibility of Killzone, but it seems like they've managed to miss another Christmas with their strongest lineup. I don't seem them outright failing but I do see them retaining their 3rd place role.

* Nintendo

Nintendo is a game company, they've been a game company for over 100 years and they will always be a game company. This may make people think that they are somehow nobler or better than their competition, Microsoft, and Sony. And I certainly don't begrudge anyone that opinion. That said, they are clearly as bloodthirsty and backstabby as either of their competitiors. They've been convicted of pricefixing, made disparaging comments about their competitors, and just been all around "meanies". That's not to say their competitors haven't done the same or worse, it's just saying that Nintendo for all it's cutesy "niceness" is not always Mr Nice Guy. However, they are first and foremost a game company, so they need this business more than either of their competitors.

This generation they've gone a completely different route, offering up what can only be described as basically last-gen hardware, with a completely innovative and different control scheme. The Wii with it's magic wand of a Wii remote is defining nintendo's offering this generation. The idea behind it being rather than dominating the competition with competitive or superior hardware, ultimately an arms race, Nintendo is instead opting to find completely new groups of consumers, currently not playing games. They're letting Microsoft and Sony go after the GTA and Halo players, and they're basically going after those people's parents, children, and younger siblings. While Nintendo will never admit that they're giving up on those people, indeed, Metroid Prime: Corruption is an example of how they're not. They haven't yet released a truly compelling game for that set of gamers. The console has sold like hotcakes, frequently outselling the X box 360 and ps3, and it seems it would sell even more, if there weren't any hardware shortages, but it's not clear how long this console's legs will be. In my opinion the control scheme is fun in small doses, for a select group of games, but I'm not sure if you'll end up finding a truly deep experience that can differentiate itself from previous games. Having got a Wii at launch, trying a bunch of early titles, and not wanting anything for it in a few months has doused my interest considerably, as has my disinterest in The Legend of Zelda, probably the most hardcore gamer aimed Nintendo title on the console.

The control scheme is interesting and innovative and it does reset the field for newcomers to video gaming, but I'm not sure if the pricepoint isn't too high for non-gamers to want to buy the thing, and while there are very strong looking titles on the horizon (Metroid, Smash Bros, Super Mario Galaxy), none of them seem to be as much a killer app as the one that actually comes with the console, Wii Sports. Mario looks rather complex, and as a first person shooter, Metriod is clearly a gamer's game. It's definitely a strong showing, but with no real competitor for Microsoft and Sony's flagship offerings ( to gamers), it's fairly clear that Nintendo is abandoning the core gamer demographics. The question is whether the non-gamer demographic can pick up the slack and buy games in high enough quantities to make it worthwhile for 3rd parties to develop for the Wii, if not, Nintendo could have the greatest marketshare and the least revenue. Also notable is with the most recent price drop, the X box 360's core system comes within spitting distance of the Wii in North America, and is actually at the same price in the UK.

*Predictions

Honestly, I'm going to cop out and say I don't know. Microsoft certainly seems to be doing everything right, but that doesn't account for the inexplicable band of Sony loyalists who won't let go of the Playstation brand until it's just completely senseless to hold on to it. Sony's high pricepoint can't last, especially without super compelling first party content, not to mention better third party support, that said, 100 million gamers is a strong statement. Nintendo certainly stands a good chance of becoming the generation's highest market share console, but I do still question how much fun I'm going to be having with my Wii in 2 years, where as I think the PS3 and 360 will still manage to be as fun as they are now. I do think Nintendo will continue to completely own the handheld market.

One thing's for sure, so far, with this much competition, the players are definitely winning.